Week 1 Recap!!Hey Everyone, We are already done with Week 1 and it is crazy to think that we are already into the 2017 season of the Red Zone Fantasy Football league. Additionally, this first week did not disappoint in terms of the overall quality of the matchups and plenty of teams had a chance to win (or lose) their match when it came to the final Monday night game. We had a number of injuries that exceed the impact of any of the prior years we have been together in the Red Zone league. I mean, I thought the loss of Keenan Allen in week 1 last year was big but looking back that pales in comparison to what happened this year. I am sure you are all waiting to hear what I have to say so I am going to jump right into the Week 1 Recap. Troll Hunters 84 (1-0) over Big City Hillbillies 74 (0-1) This was by far the least point scoring game out of all the other matches by a long shot. One top team against a bottom half team should've made for a more dominating match from Troll Hunters. On first glance that doesn't look to be the case with only 84 points by Troll Hunters. Hindsight really makes this easy but the worst play by far was playing the Vikings DST against the Saints. A turn over or two would've made this a little more manageable but I did he think this was a smart play which almost lost him the match. The score would've looked better for TH if his DST hd at least 8 or so points but you can't change your picks after the match is completed. Big City Hillbillies would love it if that was the case because the Brandon Marshall and Gillislee swap would've been a masterful move. Marshall was set for a big week without OBJ so prior to Thursday night and Gillislee rolling into 3 TDs, this line-up was about the best you could pick. Brady only getting 10 pts would be a bit disappointing but shouldn’t be the case going forward. RB1 and RB2 for both squads were evenly match with both getting 31 pts. The real difference maker here was actually the flex play performance. CJ Anderson putting the team on his back Monday night to pull off the win for Troll Hunters. Golden Tate against Arizona prior to Sunday looked like a worse matchup then TY (w/o luck) at the Rams. Overall, a surprisingly close match for how low scoring this match was. However, neither of the DSTs here were 20+ which skewed a few of the matches below. The Mullynation 122 (1-0) over Twin City Tree Cats 100 (0-1) I am going to say that no team was effected more by the "bye" week for Miami and Tampa Bay that TC2. When you add OBJs injury to the mix, TC2 doesn't have his top 2 WRs for a tough matchup against The Mullynation. If he had either of these two and swapped Adrian Peterson out of the line-up he could've had a real chance to beat Mullynation on a week 1 upset. Both teams had great performances from the Vikes WR core of Diggs and Thielen with basically a offset at around or just over 20 pts. The "Flex" play if you move Blount up to RB2 against Mully and TC2 would be around 17 (Ty Montgomery) vs 2 (AP). This primarily makes up the 20 pt swing between these two teams. I understand that Evans or OBJ would've most likely not seen a 20+ pt game but at least there would've been a much higher probability of taking a win against the number 2 team . Outside of the Vikes above average WR point totals, I would say that both team put up expected point totals for the week. No bench play would've effected the final result of the score as well. Overall it was a expected result with TC2 having his top 2 WRs having to sit on the bench week 1. However, he didn't simply give up the week and if Mullynation had take this match lightly she definitely could've lost this matchup. TC2 could definitely move up if OBJ comes back healthy and this team avoids injuries. 110 without OBJ and Evans is a solid score and TC2 seems like he will be ready every week no matter what is thrown at him. Vicious Veg-Heads 109 (1-0) over 302 Cadets 73 (0-1) Even though this is the largest blow out of the week, after a quick glace of the results has one outlier to this matchup… the Rams DST and the 37 pts they gifted the Veg-heads. If you take away the Rams DST the 302 cadets actually win this 73 to 72 even with the Patriots DST pulling down his score by 3 pts. The Colts look bad without luck and I mean real bad. There is really nothing that 302 could've done to compete against the Rams DST. Yes, Bell got only 6 points but even with 30 pts he wouldn't have beat the Veg-Heads. Overall, Cadets shouldn’t get too discouraged with this lose because there wasn't much he could do. Cam should get better and if not Dak will be serviceable as well. Bell will get better and picking DST with negative pts shouldn't be a normal occurrence. If so, maybe just drop the DST for the additional bench spot. I mean 10 pt swing for a DST getting 7 pts and Bell getting back on track will get you around 90 pts each week which gives you more of a shot to win other matches going forward. To offset the knowndecrease that is coming for the Rams DST, I can see expected increases in Counsins and Eifert to get you to around 90-100 points a week. Same situation as 302, there is upside to get to 110+ again but don’t be surprised if you see a 80 week some weeks. You just have to hope for your opponent to have a low week as well (similar to the TH and BCH match above) NorthSide Angels 108 (1-0) over Baby's Big Blowout 105 (0-1) Vicious Veg-Head would've most likely still won his match-up with a "average" DST performance of around 7-10 pts. However, NSA doesn't have the luxury to say that since he would've been smoke if the Jags had a "average" performance. NSA had a guardian angel taking care of the Jags DST. However, this angel was so preoccupied by feeding the Jags points that the BBBs witchcraft (apparently still real) put both NSAs starting RBs on the IR. This really was a unthinkable scenario for NSA. Yes if DJ was the only causality it might've been a big problem but this is a tragedy. The only small consolation prize is starting the year 1-0 against the prior years worst team in the league. It was almost like BBBs was trying to get some insurance that no matter how I do this year, if NSA loses his only two RBs, I know I won't be last place again. That is the only way that this is actually possible. I mean, BBBs should've won this game, yes Stafford over performing but even with that, the Jags shouldn't have got 34 points. I really can't believe that number. However, BBBs is setting himself up to avoid last place. No real surprises from the team outside of Stafford going for 27 pts. If you bump that down to 20 and bump Julio up to 16 that looks like a weekly average for BBBs. As such, I think BBBs will avoid last place again this year. However, if he is looking for the playoffs he'll need the Texans and the Panthers to boast their running game and force feed Miller and McCarfferey (which doesn't appear to be the case at this time.) Overall, BBB got the last laugh kicking the legs off the throne that NSA was sitting on after a solid 2016 performance. We'll all have to wait and see if and how NSA can respond with such a devastating blow. River Gypsies 110.5 (1-0) over Indian Outlaws 109.6 (0-1) Actually, I am going to retract my statement for TC2 because no team was effected more by the week 1 bye for Miami and Tampa Bay, than Indian Outlaws. If Ajayi would've been able to start, Ameer would've been placed on the bench (like he should be) and most likely would've put up the 7 pts needed to win the matchup. That being said, Indian Outlaws did not deserve to win this matchup. I mean 43 pts from Kareem Hunt!!! Come on, your RB2 and WR core got you around 20 pts combined. You should've been able to smoke anyone with a score like that but you end up losing due to a pt correction on Thursday morning. I guess no score is safe if you are within around 3 pts of your opponent. Also the fact that IOS had plenty of bench options West over Ameer or Maclin (Colemon needed to prove himself) over idk Sanders or even Allen (maybe would've caused a tie). RGs played about as good a matchup as he could with a few players in the Miami/Tampa bye game. RGs saw what he needed to do after the Thursdaynight slug fest that Hunt put up and matched it with all around solid points. Yes Tyreek hill got 21 points but spread that over a average DST of 8 (RG had 3) and 4-5 more for Freeman give RGs a reasonable spread of points that could happen every week (except week 2 since he looks to have some tough matchups). Overall, Indian outlaws will need his WR studs to actually show up which might be difficult for Dez. He has tough WR/Corner matchups and a sup 10 pt weeks might actually be the norm. Getting Ajayi's bye out of the way will give him more strength in week 11. Still tough loss to swallow after being declared the winner for a couple days. IOS had a very violate score card with RGs looking much more consistent across the board. We'll all look forward to see the week 6 grudge match with both Dez and Zek on byes. I see this favoring IOS because the depth IOS has in WRs is far superior to the depth RGs has at RBs (after Doug Martin makes his return in Tampa). Week 2 Power "Bond" RatingsWow, what a coincidence that I happen to talk about the importance of diversifying investments (players) and bond (team) ratings this week after we had a discussion on the importance of having a personal investment account, 401k and HSA account. The simple reason of having multiple investment vehicles is to cover didn’t situations that will arise in everyone's future. Let's start with HSA. Let us say you are having a baby (RGs perfect example for you), you want to have a HSA maxed out for the end of this year to have plenty of tax free dollars to cover any deductibles or additional medical costs that come up. Without this HSA you are using personal investments (maybe you were saving for a House) on something that could've been paid using tax free income. Additionally, after a year so RGs wants to buy a House but used all his personal funds on the new baby girl (50/50 guess and I'm going with girl) so he pulls money out of his 401K to pay for a down payment. Everything is going smooth until RGs is ready for retirement and notices that he is doesn't have enough to retire and continues to work as the Wheelers, Tibstra, Johnson, Hanson, Hanson, Leventry, Wanous, and Rosenthal are having parties every night enjoying the easy life in retirement. See what happens if you don't invest in a HSA account? It will have a lasting impact on your life. (Hopefully RGs has a HSA but if not we can definitely talk through other options as your local CPA.) Overall, putting too many eggs in one basket could ruin your team and require a lot of moves to get it back to a "safe" investment portfolio again. Back to the league. I have taken off my CPA hat and swapped it for a temporary CFA hat. For those of you who don't know, CFA is Chartered Financial Analyst who deals with investments and financial professionals. I have also consulted with Moody's and Standard's and Poor Bond ratings to utilize for our team "portfolio" ratings. AAA is the top level investment grade, BB is the speculative grade, with CCC-D being the Junk or default imminent. I have leveraged the middle ratings of S&P for my ratings of each team below: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating
1. Troll Hunters 1 - 0 (-) AAA So the first couple teams might be a little boring because honestly nothing really changed week one for these teams. Troll Hunters has the exact same team with the exact same expectations as last week. Overall, he has top RBs in RB1, RB2, and Flex with backups beyond that a Forte and Rawls (if worst comes to worst). WR depth is no different, Cooks and TY Hilton are a solid WR1 and WR2. Golden Tate is a fill in for byes or a replacement for TY if Luck continues to remained side lined with his shoulder. Ted Ginn and Corey Davis add additional upside to that WR core. Lastly, don't forget Gronk as the TE and if he stays health will keep TH on top. Gurley and Cook performed as expected for week 1 from a RB side and CJA looks to have a tighter grasp on the Denver backfield for now. Low score this week for Gronk and Cooks with Brady having a off day but that should change. Overall, really can't change the rankings because no changes for the team. Only possible change is Luck might have to sit out a few more weeks but we'll reevaluate that next week because you always have to start Big Ben at home!! I'm calling for Gronk to have a monster week. I am sure Brady will force feed Gronk down the Saints DBs and with a high scoring game expected it'll be a fun game to watch!! 2. Mullynation 1 - 0 (-) AAA Same things I mentioned above for TH could be said for Mullynation. The AAA ranking is giving to the RB depth of Gordon, Hyde, and Ty with James White (PPR player) ready to go off the bench. Not to mention a RB1 out of D Henry if Murray would to have a injury which is luckily avoided last year. WR depth is similar with AJ Green, Diggs, and Garcon being a easy WR2 choice for byes or injury fill ins. Having a expected top 3 TE and Mariota as the QB, there is plenty of reason why you should invest in this time right now and not have a second thought. Honestly, once again nothing last week had any red flags that this team shouldn't retain a top grade and the number 2 spot. Sorry for the limited commentary Mullynation but like I said above, these top few will be fairly similar to last week so there is no use going over it again. Just enjoy the view from the top of the pack with a 1-0 record as you look to defend your title. 3. River Gypsies 1 - 0 (-) AA I mean, I could definitely see RGs wondering why he isn't at least 1 or two. I mean he has a top 2 RB and another top 10 at least. Additionally, he has a some top talent at WR/QB as well with Jordy, Hill, and Matt Ryan. But you are really doubling down on the GB WR possibly this week against a formidable defense. Even if you swap Adams for Landry or Crowder, I still think the Mullynation and TH are a step ahead. With the RB market drying up, you have a few backup fill-ins but could be a problem if Zek's suspension gets switched again… or more likely if he gets hurt. Tevin is a needed backup so little would be lost if Freeman went down. However, you are still near the top of the investment grade and honestly it wouldn't be a surprise if you jump up to AAA after week 3. You're not going to win next week so you can start to accept the fact of starting 1-1 right now. On a more serious note, you have extremely strong RB core and a WR1 and WR2 to keep you near the top most weeks. Once again no new changes from number 1 or 2 above you and no big noteworthy changes from your team after week 1. As such, the top 3 will remain the top 3 after concluding week 1. Honestly, GB shut down Seattle and I know Atlanta will shut down GB. Additionally, Zek is against Denver and Rudolph against Pit. So I can't see any crazy high points for this team for week 2. (This has absolutely nothing to do with the fact I Troll Hunters plays River Gypsies in week 2…) 4. Indian Outlaws 0 - 1 (+1) AA So I have to now rewrite part of my commentary because RGs took the win right off of IOS's finger… However, that didn't change the fact that I always had RG ahead of IOS when I was writing the rankings. Overall, IOS receives a AA rating from the Hanson Team Rating Agency. Similar to RG, there isn't much this team needs to do to move up to the AAA rank either by players consistent outstanding performance (i.e.Kareem Hunt) or if one the other teams begins to enter into riskier markets. Kareem Hunt was almost a week 1 savoir for the Outlaws and shows huge upside to this player. However, its only one week. If we rank Hunt as a Top RB1 because of week 1 we would have to rank Bell or Brady as bottom feeders (which is obviously not the case) As such, nothing changed in week 1 that caused me to adjust the rankings from what the Chieftain talked about last week. Outside of Kareem Hunt dropping 43 pts this team has the same look as before. Overall, I would rank Zek and Freeman over the Ajayi and Hunt team 9 times out of 10. So we'll stick with these spots for now. You earned your AA ranking for this week but like RGs it wouldn't take much to move up to AAA as well as it would probably take a lot to move you down to BBB. Highest projected points projection I think will be Ajayi coming off that "bye" week strong. I could hedge my bet and call boom for Hunt after saying he's going to have plenty of bust weeks too. However, that's the easy way out so my pick is Ajayi! 5. 302 Cadets 0 - 1 (+1) BBB 302 earns a BBB ranking and joins the top 5. The benefits included with both of these mean that you are still included within Investment Grade on teams. One of the primary reasons for this rankings is that with DJ out, you now have the undisputed top RB1 in the league. Even though he might be against the hometown team, Bell at home after kicking the rust off the tires last week should pay out some quality dividends. On top of that you have Lynch against the Jets has you with a Solid RB1-2 punch. You pair these guys with M. Thomas, Hopkins, and Jeffery has you above BCH and VVs this week but not enough to break your way into the top 4. You have plenty of WR depth even behind these guys but as our Commander and Chieftain noted last week, RB depth is non-existent with Gio your only Bye week option at this point. As such, it was tempting to move you down to a BB rank with this limited depth but for now you are still investment worthy. However, don’t make me regret giving you this ranking and next week see you in default because of this RB depth… Lastly, I don't have a problem moving you up even though you had the least amount of points last week. As noted above in the recaps, you simply take out the DST and you won that match with Bell simply warming up. My highest point predication will be Michael Thomas against NE. I think it will be a high scoring game and NO will take to the air right at the start. 6. Big City Hillbillies 0 - 1 (+2) BB This was a close one between Hillbillies and the Veggies and you both deserve a BB team grade. On the original Moody's or S&P bond rating they would consider this ranking "Junk" bonds or speculative bonds. This is a medium investment and medium risk situation you have VVs have with your teams. So I am going to focus on the wording of speculative and since I don't think either team should be considered "Junk". Overall, there is a solid case for either being the 6th spot and even the 5th spot. However, like I mentioned, 302 has a slightly better player matchup and the top RB in the league which gives him the edge for now. However, its not that obvious between Hillbillies and Veg Heads. I see Hillbillies RB1 and RB2 this week as both lower RB1s (top 8-12 maybe) with his WRs lacking as a low WR2 for Pryor and WR2 worth Flex worthy players. However, the tipping point is a little forward looking as I like BCH's RB depth better then the VegHeads. After seeing what happened to NSA, having a servicable Gillislee to fill that RB2 spot or Doug Martin during future bye weeks after week 4, has me siding with the Hillbillies. This could give him 4 viable RBs compared incase the worst happens. As such, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rating move up in the coming weeks when Doug Martin joins the team and takes back the RB1 spot in Tampa. However, that is only speculative that he can take back his spot which once again helps justify the BB rating. Brady is also going to be out for blood this week so I could see this being a high scoring game favoring BCH this week. My highest point predication for BCH is Brady this week. I think he will have no mercy after losing to KC in week 1. 7. Vicious Veg-Heads 1 - 0 (-) BB Similar to 302 above, this team is one player away from defaulting and being pushed down the investment grades. I think any other team would love to have the RB pair of McCoy and Murray. However, the WR Starter situation and RB depth has me very speculative on how this team investment will play out. For this week however, McCoy top 3 RB with Murray having a tougher match up still around the Top 10-20 spot locked (pending injury as always). However, your WRs and Flex are around the high WR2 to high WR3 slots. No solid WR1 at the top to anchor that WR1 spot in you line-up. Like I said above though, what happens if you lose either of these RBs? The Saints backfield is still pretty messy and Charles fumble Monday night isn't helping his case. However you don't need to think about that right now since you aren't in that kind of situation but when investing it is always good to have at least one fall back which I don't see here at this time. As such, this is the slight separation factor in favor of BCH above as well as the reason you received a BB ranking. My highest point predication for VVs will be D Thomas against Dallas. I think that this will be a high scoring game and DT will get plenty of chances for a few big scoring plays. Quick pause as we finish with the bottom 3 spots on this weeks power rankings. I feel like I forgot to mention the Top 3 WR in the Draft. I mean I went through all the Investment /Speculative investment ratings and last comes the junk ratings. It feels odd that I haven't mentioned Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckman Jr…? Maybe they are on a bye week so I forgot to mention them… no its too early for Bye weeks? Or could it be that Irma has moved up the East coast to Atlanta, NY and Pitt? No, pretty sure I haven't heard any of that on the news… Huh, maybe I should just continue with the team investment ratings and maybe I'll remember where I talked about them in the first 7 spots. 8. Triple Bs 0 -1 (+1) CCC BBBs looks more like CCC from the perspective of a investor. BBBs is coming off a tough loss to the NSA who will most likely be limping around for a while as they look to address this RB situation that has been the talk of our league. Overall, there was just a fair amount of consistency about this team but not a crazy amount of upside (until you prove to us we are wrong). The rating of CCC is giving when default is possible and if Julio goes down, default will occur 100%. There are pieces to survive weekly but no one wants to see another 2016 show where you win a match within starting a RB2. You still got last place with a win like that during the year. If Lamar and McCaffary and prove themselve as a RB1 and RB2 (doesn't matter the order) I can see the upside and moving BBB to possibly a BBB ranking which would fit his name perfectly. Overall, this is a wait and see. I am hedging my bets that this could be a problem when comparing to the team above. Some might investor might see this team and bench as "shit". We all know that BBB has seen his fair share the past few months so maybe he found something good in players everyone wants to avoid. Powell and Fat Rob are actually starting RBs, so there is at least some depth here on BBBs bench. So in terms of depth in a RB depth crisis for some teams its appears that BBBs has covered his ass a bit if "shit hits the fan" with Lamar or McCaffary go down. My highest point predication for BBBs will be McCaffrey. I know the obvious choice is Julio against the GB but I think Car want to show off their new toy again especially at home. So McCaffery will show up big next week, you heard it hear first. 9. Twin Cities Tree Cats 0 -1 (+1) CCC Next we have Twin Cities Tree Cats who moves up a spot and is given a CCC rank with his top 2 WRs ODJ and Mike Evans, arguably the top WR pairing out there. Wait, there is another one of the Big 3 WRs and paired with Evans, why is TC2 in the 9th spot and ranked as a default risk. This has to be a fluke right, I mean these two alone have help move him at least to the 5th spot and investment grade. Okay, looking at the flex spot you've got Adam Thielen which is a solid flex so this shouldn't hurt your value by any means. Okay, still not worth a 9 spot designation… looking at the bench you have a few long shot RBs with Adrian (who looked bad on Monday), Sproles and CJ Prosise who might be useful once on a bye but not much depth. Uh what could I be missing… oh I missed the QB and RBs. QB is just fine with Brezy almost bringing up the value you currently have. But wait, I see Crowell and Blount, is this your bench oh no, its your RB1 and RB2… my bad, how could I have missed this. No wonder I have you down at 9 and a CCC grade. Honestly, I am not on the Crowell bandwagon 1) its Cleveland and 2) its Cleveland. I don’t see them being ahead in games and simply pounding the rock. Also it wouldn't surprise me if he turned in a top 15 year, but it also wouldn't surprise me if Duke or another backup RB took the lead role half way through the season. Blount is a boom or bust play, if Philly is at all near the goal line you have a chance to make him a RB2. This is the only one I might be a little biased on because I don't like Crowell/Cleveland. Please prove me wrong!!! I feel like I always hate on the Tree Cats and looking to hate on some new blood. High score predication for this week is Breezy. Kinda obvious picking a QB but NO vs NE should make for a high scoring game. 10. NorthSide Angels 1-0 (-6) D Everyone knows that Fantasy Football is like saving for retirement . You want to invest now to live comfortably later in life (or later in the season for our case). Additionally, you can't make the playoffs or win the championship in week 1. You also can't lose either as well. There are still 12 weeks left before the end of the season and NSA's record is better than half the teams in our league. Most teams plan to diversify there investments at the beginning of the season to plan for the worst. Outside of that it really looks like you defaulted on your investment or at least part of it. If the injury was Brown instead of DJ this would be a completely different story but losing both RBs in the same week was actually the worst case scenario for your team. Yes you still have two high value WR1 and the top QB. But everything after that appears to be complete junk especially the RBs. You want your RBs to score at least 25 pts a week. These guys look to get you 10 combined at best… the DST won't save you many weeks and you literally dodged a bullet last week against BBB. I don't expect you to be in default all year with waivers and trades a must for NSA. However, the immidate investment value of your team has to be a D and your team literally defaulted on your RBs with no viable starters at this time. At best, teams would see flex value but you are required to start them at RB1 and RB2. Like I said above though, this is a 13 week season and you are already ahead of 5 teams. There is still a chance to make the playoffs but it will require a lot of work and maybe parting with one of your top three investments in hopes to diversifying your team to avoid only tragedy. I am going against my comment above and doubling down on the Jags DST. They will once again come up big and save NSA for another week before reality sets in on the roster management work that needs to be done to make the playoffs.
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By: Hayden HansonMr. Hayden Hanson (Editor in Chief) is an Accountant-extraordinaire, as well as an aspiring writer. He has written several moderately-successful self-help books, the most famous of which is "What Do You Mean You Can Smell My BO?" Gustav Travers of the New York Times praised the book as "A vulnerable, courageous look into the mind of a man who has literally no sense that other people exist. And also no sense of smell. Nope, he definitely doesn't have that either. Just musk, like a hog that's gotten into the cabbage." Archives
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