Time to take the ol' fingers out for a spin. Man this year has gone fast, and my weekly responsibilities have gotten the best of me! That's simply going to have to change now that we've officially crossed the midpoint of the season. In less than eight weeks, we will have another Schadenfreude champion, and it's just not sitting right with me that I'm not documenting this process along the way. I'll be better. So, how does one go about consolidating eight weeks of play into one piece? I have a couple ideas, but they might be messy. We're going to go team-by-team, picking one area in which their strategy/drafting/FA worked as planned, and one area that has not panned out. Then we're going to preview this next week (which begins tonight), and close with a general outlook for the next eight weeks. We begin with our current #1 seed and also reigning champion, the team that puts the auto in autodraft, the 302 Cadets! 302 CadetsDerek had a simple goal, draft Gurley, Wentz, and Hill, then peace out. Aaaaand, I'd say that worked out pretty well. Gurley is looking like prime LT, and Hill is WR#2 and has had 2 out of 8 games go for 35+ points. You didn't do much, Derek, but what you did has worked out very very well. As for what hasn't, I'd say that the Cadets' RB situation is still looking grim besides Gurley. There's Dion Lewis, Philip Lindsay, and then...no one else. There have been so many great FA RBs this year! Peterson, Conner, Mack, White, Chubb, Cohen, Carson, and more have all come from the waiver wire, and yet they all found their way onto other rosters instead of the RB-needy Cadets. Gurley is producing like two RB2s, so it's inconsequential, but Gurley's continued health is the only thing keeping 302 from slipping into an RB-pocalypse. Troll HuntersTH focused on spending big on four main fixtures of the team - Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks, Dalvin Cook, and Kareem Hunt. 3/4 ain't bad, and TH was ready for Dalvin's injury by locking up Latavius Murray, which has already proven to be an incredibly smart move. This core grouping (Cook --> Murray) has given TH a nice weekly advantage, allowing for a five-game winning streak only just halted last week (though they scored 126), and the #2 seed. Dalvin Cook was penciled in as either the RB1 or the RB2 of this team, and he's been useless. That hasn't worked out great, though as mentioned, Murray has been a capable fill-in. If I had to pick another option, the thing that hasn't gone right for the Hunters this season has been Derrick Henry. He was going to be your RB3, and he wouldn't even be starting on the Cadets at this point. Obviously, this hasn't impacted TH's wins and losses, since things are still going well. But hey, I've gotta pick something. River GypsiesAs far as things going according to plan, I'd say that McCaffrey has been easily worth his pricetag. He's the RB#10 despite already having his bye, and his role in the offense has been sublime. He's exactly what RG was hoping to buy for an RB1. Gentry had Davante Adams planned as his sole elite WR, and Adams has delivered and then some. I'm guessing the plan, per se, wasn't for Jordan Reed to stay healthy (that was more a wish), but it's happened nonetheless, and he's playing well. It's a testament to Gentry's skill that he can be sitting at 5-3 and have so many things go outside his original plan. Fournette has been an abject failure. McKinnon was never used in a single week. Rodgers has not remotely been worth his pricetag as the most expensive QB. Keepering JuJu over Tyreek has been a mistake, though JuJu is still WR#17. Josh Gordon hasn't had the role anyone was hoping, either in Cleveland or in New England. And yet, RG has pivoted into TJ Yeldon and Chris Carson, and is getting along just fine. Vicious Veg-HeadsLets revisit the moment post-draft when VV picked up Adrian Peterson from the waiver wire by dropping Devante Parker. Yeah, that's gone swimmingly. Also, Melvin Gordon, Manny Sanders (!!), OBJ, and the aggressive move to grab George Kittle have all been rock solid and dependable. Your choice in RB1 and WR1 were sound, and you've surrounded them with undervalued talent. Overall, it's worked. I'm guessing that VV had Larry Fitzgerald lined up as their weekly WR2 this year, a move that I actually really liked! But wow, Larry has just been a ghost of his former self. Perhaps the move to Leftwich at OC will continue to revive him like last week, but color me skeptical. No matter though, since Sanders is WR#8. "Look at me. I'm the WR2 now." Wire Wastebasket WoesThis one is hard. It's blended. I have to say, the plan to draft two elite TEs so far has been tough to grade. Yes, WWW traded one of those assets for Adam Thielen, the WR#1. That's good (going out on a limb here, I know). Buuut choosing to keep Gronk over Kelce is looking like an awful move thus far. Planning for Gronk to be the TE#1 has been a major disappointment. Since his 19 points in Week One, he's cracked double digits only twice (10 and 11 points), and he simply doesn't look like the old Gronk. Meanwhile Kelce is the TE#2. That said, grabbing TY Hilton as the team's WR1 looks perfect, drafting Cooper Kupp as a bench lottery ticket couldn't have worked much better, and picking up Tarik Cohen off the wire has saved WWW's RB situation. This team could have been so much better, but it's still decent. Twin City Tree CatsTC2, like 302, simply crushed its top RB and WR in the draft. Can't do much better than Barkley and Hopkins, and the stones to spend huge money on Barkley has paid enormous returns already. Trey Burton has also been a very pleasant surprise at the TE position (TE#6), making TC2's modest $5 investment look worthwhile so far. Grabbing the duo of Cousins and Luck early on from the wire has locked up the QB position. And the cherry on top? The foresight to grab James White (RB#7) from the wire back in August as a complementary piece is saving TC2's RB situation (outside Barkley, of course). Otherwise, the RB situation has been a bit rough. Royce Freeman has been lukewarm at best, and the decision not to spend big and acquire his counterpart, Philip Lindsay, was headscratching then and is headscratching now. Marshawn Lynch finally appeared old, just like Larry. After a great 2017. they got got. Breida suddenly looked like a savior, but he's been getting banged up every week, leading to a very difficult decision about starting him. It's hard to care too much about missing Freeman, Lindsay, Lynch, and Breida though when Barkley and White are the two starters. Northside AngelsAs far as plans go, the Angels have had quite a tumultuous year so far. Most of their big moves haven't worked out great. However, there are two moves in particular that have been so spectacular, they've dragged NSA to a 4-4 record. Grabbing James Conner from FA is simply the only reason NSA has won a single game at all. He's been transcendent, and NSA would be dead in the water without him. And Mike Evans has had one hell of a bounce-back year as NSA's WR1, a role I thought he may attain, but not with the vigor in which he's seized it. Fitzpatrick especially has buoyed Evans into 2018 stardom. Whelp, the plan to go after Bell is looking...not great. Bell may not even get meaningful snaps this year, much less justify his $74 pricetag. McCoy has been a bust. Collins is simply bad. Golden Tate has had one good game since Week Two, and he was just traded to a team that doesn't throw as much as the Lions, and he'll be the third priority in the pecking order. Less than ideal. The Mullynation?Spending huge in FAAB to grab Patrick Mahomes post Week One is MN's move of the year. She dumped Stafford immediately and pivoted to a new avenue, and Mahomes is basically her most valuable asset behind Kamara now. Also, drafting Kerryon Johnson and Aaron Jones have kind of gone according to plan, as they both clearly look like the top option in their backfields, but neither is getting the coaches to agree yet. The preemptive strike to grab Courtland Sutton is one of the only rays of positivity in this WR corps. That was a great move, but it may not be enough. Most moves haven't panned out at all, really. Do we start with Baldwin? A perennial WR1, slated to be MN's WR1 this year, is borderline droppable. The tertiary support - Amari Cooper and Corey Davis - are looking pitiful. Nelson Agholor was dropped already. David Johnson of 2018 does not look like David Johnson of 2016, though his scoring has been mediocre. But you don't spend $74 on mediocre. That's a swing and a miss. Ingram also is looking less and less useful by the day, though the Saints' schedule gets waaay easier after this week. Maybe he and Kamara can remix some 2017 into MN's team? Indian OutlawsuOof. The plan to spend big on three elite WRs has culminated in two quasi-elite WRs. Woohoo. Antonio Brown is the WR#5, and somehow even with that, it feels like a disappointment. Brown has been the WR#1 forever. But still, WR#5 is nothing to sneeze at. AJ Green clocks in at WR#7, which is respectable, but slightly below my expectations. If we're talking about plans though, Kenny Golladay and Nick Chubb are looking better than advertised on draft day. Holding them was worth it. The move to ditch Ronald Jones and grab Marlon Mack as the new upside lottery pick also proved to be a winning ticket. It's taken awhile, but maybe the RB corps has finally come together for IO. And being two games back of the #1 seed, no, it's actually not too late for a run. Brown was disappointing. Green was kind of disappointing. Allen has been a failure. Ajayi was supposed to be the RB1, and he's gone. Drake shows that talent of his, but he's maddening to start. Drafting Andrew Luck, being scared by one game of poor arm strength, dumping him, then watching him flourish? Would not recommend. Engram is gone. Hell, even the Jaguars DST isn't valuable. The plan has utterly gone to hell in a handbasket. 90* PuttersJoe Mixon is starting to string those flashes of talent I mentioned post-draft into predictable weekly production, which absolutely makes him worth the draft capital 90* spent on him. That's been a rousing success, even despite his injury. Unfortunately, not much else has gone according to plan for 90*. Correct me if I'm wrong, Chris. Diggs may be WR#10, but that's essentially come in just two games, with a litany of busts in between. Thielen has clearly supplanted him as far as fantasy football goes. Demaryius Thomas is a pure bust. Watson was the second most-expensive QB, and he's barely a QB1. Crowell looked like a genius move early on, but he's crashed back to Earth. I mean, even Zeke is the RB#9 in points per game. That's not what his pricetag is supposed to return. So yes, the Putters are 1-7, and though they may not be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, that goose is cooked. Now it's time to make a plan to play spoiler, and see if the Putters can stick to that. Week NineWire Wastebasket Woes (Hilton on bye) vs. Troll Hunters (no notable byes) River Gypsies (Fournette, Yeldon on bye) vs. Northside Angels (Golden Tate on bye) Vicious Veg-Heads (OBJ, Fitzgerald on bye) vs. The Mullynation (David Johnson on bye) Twin City Tree Cats (Barkley, Luck on bye) vs. Indian Outlaws (Green, Boyd, Mack on bye) 302 Cadets (Ertz, Jeffrey, Wentz on bye) vs. 90* Putters (Mixon on bye) The Playoff PictureAs of now, our top six seeds are as follows:
1. 302 (5-3) 2. TH (5-3) 3. RG (5-3) 4. VV (5-3) 5. WWW (5-3) 6. TC2 (4-4) It's a glut. Any of these teams could suffer one injury (or not) and fall straight out of the race. No one is safe. No has has locked anything up. Technically, the Putters (!!) could still catch anyone. That's nuts. The teams still in the hunt are NSA (4-4), MN (3-5), and IO (3-5). Unfortunately, it would pretty much take an act of God for 90* to make it at this point. NSA plays RG (Fournette, Yeldon), TC2 (Cousins, Hopkins, Brown, Freeman), 302 (Landry), MN (Mahomes), and VV (no byes). MN plays VV (OBJ, Fitzgerald), TH (Cook, Murray), RG (Gordon), NSA (no byes), and IO (no byes) IO plays TC2 (Barkley, Luck), VV (Sanders), 90* (Crowell, Edelman), TH (Hunt, Cooks, Watkins), and MN (no byes). I think NSA has a ceiling of 4-1 (don't see them beating 302), with a median outcome of probably 2-3. That would put them at 6-7, which may be enough depending on TC2's performance and the results of the NSA-TC2 match in Week 10 (which I see NSA winning). I see them favored over TC2, with a push against MN. I think MN also has a ceiling of 4-1 (don't see them beating RG), with a median outcome of 3-2. I think MN has a notably easier schedule than NSA, though her bye situation is doesn't give her as much of an advantage. A 3-2 finish would likely stem from a MN victory over NSA in Week 12, though that likely wouldn't propel MN past TC2 into the playoffs. I see them favored over VV, with a push against TH and NSA. I think IO certainly has the easiest schedule remaining, also with excellent help from byes, so I do think it's unlikely but possible that IO could finish 5-0 if things fell right. IO is favored over TC2 this week, and should be favored over 90*, TH, and MN. The median outcome would probably be 3-2 like MN, but I think it wouldn't take much to sneak up to 4-1, which would make the playoff race very interesting. Basically, IO is still going to make the playoffs despite being 2-5 going into Week Eight and last in Points-Scored. Start preparing yourself now. The comeback is gonna be something to behold. Oh, and Evan, don't think I haven't noticed that WWW and IO are within 30 points in terms of points-scored (<4 per game), but you're averaging twenty-five fewer points-against per game en route to our complementary 5-3 and 3-5 records. It's cool, I'm gonna getcha.
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By: Hayden HansonMr. Hayden Hanson (Editor in Chief) is an Accountant-extraordinaire, as well as an aspiring writer. He has written several moderately-successful self-help books, the most famous of which is "What Do You Mean You Can Smell My BO?" Gustav Travers of the New York Times praised the book as "A vulnerable, courageous look into the mind of a man who has literally no sense that other people exist. And also no sense of smell. Nope, he definitely doesn't have that either. Just musk, like a hog that's gotten into the cabbage." Archives
September 2019
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