I'm sure you all are beginning to get that sinking feeling in your stomach, slowly coming to the realization that, yes, IO will four-peat. It's destiny, everyone. You can't stand in the way of destiny.
I know the point of this post is not really relating to IO at all, but I'm just going to take about thirty seconds of your time and pat myself on the back, because Lord knows I've earned it. The Indian Outlaws have now won TEN straight playoff games. That's right. Ten straight. IO has never had a first-round bye, yet has won the last three championships, and is two mere games away from a fourth. The last playoff loss IO had was in 2011. Let's give it up, people. Come on. That's just impressive. Anyway, this week's post is a reboot of last year's "What If" posting. I will break down several reasonable alternate scenarios for how this season went down, and try to figure out where we'd be. Of course, with waivers and such, there's no actual way to know what would happen, but it's fun to think about anyway. Scenario #1: What if the Indian Outlaws hadn't picked the worst DST choice possible in Week 5? Here's what actually happened. TH played against IO in Week 5, and though both teams shat the bed (93.6 and 87.8), IO shat the bed even worse. TH earned an incredibly important win with a total of just 93.6 points. This actually ended up being very influential, as TH ended up as the Red Zone's #6 seed. Now the thing is, IO chose to play the Ravens DST that week, as they were facing an awful Cleveland team. That turned out to be a disastrous decision, with the Ravens DST earning a -6 score! IO lost by 5.8, so playing no DST at all would have given IO the victory. Only three DSTs would have caused IO to lose in Week 5, and IO used one of them. The other two (NO and SF) would never get picked by anyone, regardless of matchup. Had IO played any other DST, TH would have likely entered Week 13 with a 5-7 record, the same as NSA. In that case, both would have needed a victory to advance to the playoffs. We know how that ended, with both actually losing to their opponents, thus succumbing to 5-8 records. The part where it gets interesting is that TH played NSA in Week 1 and won, so TH would have held the head-to-head tiebreaker over NSA. So that means that TH still would have made the playoffs, right? Wrong! TC2 and SMF also won in Week 13, bringing both of their records to 5-8, meaning we would have had a four-way tie at 5-8 for the last playoff spot. Since there would be more than just two teams involved, the tiebreaker then would have gone to total points scored, which NSA would have won (NSA: 1534, SMF: 1467, TH: 1382, TC2: 1320). NSA would have been the #6 seed. Given the fact that NSA scored just 83 points in Week 13 and overall put up a rather uninspired effort in the last regular season match, it's not completely unreasonable to think that RG may have chosen NSA as his opponent for Week 14, opting to pit IO and MN against each other instead. Had RG chosen NSA, he would have come to regret that decision, losing this week 122.3 - 128.9 in a close match with NSA. Scenario #2: What if the 302 Cadets had simply had a decent week in Week 4? We are going further and further back, and beginning to stretch the bonds of credibility, but I don't care. It's a fun thought experiment regardless. So, in Week 4 we had IO face against 302 and emerge with a weak victory of 90.2 - 84.1. Now, Week 4 was overall a pretty terrible week for fantasy football (if you don't believe me, just look at the scores), but still, coming away with a win after only scoring 90 points is usually pretty unlikely. What if IO, like the vast majority of teams before it, earned a loss by only scoring 90.2 points? Well, had 302 put up even just a below-average week of about 100 (year-long average for 302 was 105 points per game), they would have earned another win, pushing them to a 5-8 record at the end of the year instead of 4-9. That would have placed 302 squarely into a five-way tie at 5-8, along with IO, NSA, TC2, and SMF. Based on total points scored, TC2 would have lost that tie, and would no longer have the privilege of naming themselves next year. 302 would be spared as our ninth seed, and we would still see the 302 Cadets name as usual next year. In regards to IO, they would have ended the year (as mentioned above) at 5-8. Normally you wouldn't even be able to dream of making the playoffs with a 5-8 record, but amazingly, that IO loss in Week 4 would ensure that a playoff team would have a 5-8 record. And that playoff team would be....... NSA! NSA's points-scored would move it to the front of the line, giving it the boost it needed to make the playoffs. In this ridiculous (yet alarmingly possible) scenario, the #6 seed and the #10 seed would somehow have the exact same W-L record. The only difference between making the playoffs and losing your naming rights would be your points scored. That's a fight that NSA would win, and TC2 would lose. Scenario #3: What if the Week 7 showdown between 90* and RG never had that fateful stat correction? In Week 7, 90* was riding his 6 game winning streak to start the season while RG was 3-3 and fighting for a playoff slot. Their matchup came down to the wire, with 90* seemingly earning a 137.8 - 137.0 victory. It was not to last. Several days later, a stat correction removed a pass deflection from 90*'s defensive lineman, Aaron Donald, so 90* lost two points in the process. This gave RG the improbable victory by a 137 - 135.8 margin. What if there had been no review of the footage, and Aaron Donald had still been credited with that pass deflection? 90* would have ended the year with a lofty 11-2 record, the best in the history of the Red Zone. Clearly, he still would have been the #1 seed. RG however would end the year at 7-6 instead of 8-5, and find himself right in the thick of things. There would be two 7-6 teams this year, RG and The Mullynation. Considering MN beat RG in their sole head-to-head matchup, she would have earned the tiebreaker over him, becoming the #3 seed. RG would have been the #4, with IO at #5 (6-7 record) and TH at #6 (6-7 record). The interesting part is, I know for a fact that MN would have picked TH for her Week 14 opponent. That is a fact. She would have lost that matchup 102.6 - 108.5, so TH would currently be in the semifinals. The kicker is, IO and RG would have had their faceoff in Week 14, just like IO wanted. Had that happened, the Monday Night Football game would have been incredibly intense. Before the game, both teams were projected to end at 116 points, so it was a tight matchup. Lamar Miller had an explosive first half, scoring 19 points. OBJ did basically nothing, and had just a couple points at the half. I'm sure RG would have been basking in his inevitable victory. The second half turned things around though, with Miller only getting five carries for basically no points. OBJ ended up with a monster game, all from the second half. IO would have won 140.4 - 122.3, but no one would have guessed that outcome at halftime. IO, TH, 90*, and BCH would be in the semifinals. Consolation Bracket Analysis: We can't forget about our beloved brethren who missed the playoffs this year, so let's look into what's going on in our consolation bracket. We have four teams vying for a free jersey: NSA, SMF, 302, and TC2. NSA was our #7 seed (based on points-scored tiebreaker), so he has earned the privilege to choose his opponent in each week of this three-week round robin tournament. In Week 14 (Week #1 of the playoffs), NSA selected TC2 as his opponent, leaving SMF and 302 to face off in the other game. NSA had a fantastic game from his Panthers DST (29), and when coupling that with solid games from Aaron Rodgers (19.4), TY Hilton (13.2), Adrian Peterson (12.6), David Johnson (12.3), and Stephen Gostkowski (11), that was more than enough to push him past TC2's 94.6 point total. TC2 really didn't have the greatest week, with the sole bright spots being Carson Palmer (20.7), Khalil Mack (18.8), and Julius Thomas (11.4). Interestingly, TC2 made the smart move to acquire Justin Tucker off waivers, but then forgot to put him in his kicker slot. This is the first example this season of an illegal lineup, so everyone try to stay invested! Tucker's six points wouldn't have changed the outcome of this game, but considering points-scored is a tiebreaker in the consolation bracket, maybe TC2 is trying to foot the bill for the jersey? In the other game, 302 posted an excellent total of 138.9 points just one week after scoring 157.7 and losing. Perhaps his team was angry about being named the last-place team in the Red Zone? The 138.9 was enough to get past SMF's 95.1, earning 302 just his fifth victory of the season. Blake Bortles (23.7), Deangelo Williams (21.1), Allen Hurns (16.5), Gary Barnidge (15.1) and even the Steelers DST against the Bengals (15) all had great days. TJ Yeldon got injured, which is going to hurt 302 going forward, but that's just his flex position. Antonio Brown had an uncharacteristically bad day (8.7), but can you really ever count out Antonio Brown? He'll be back. SMF got yet another stellar game from Cam Newton (23), as well as solid showings from the mercurial Sammy Watkins (14.2), Broncos DST (12), and Blair Walsh (11), but that wasn't enough to boost the multiple poor outings. Jeremy Hill, Charcandrick West, Mike Evans, and Michael Crabtree all COMBINED for 13.6 points. That's not going to go well. So, our leaderboard currently is as follows: #1: 302 Cadets (1-0 with 138.9 points scored) #2: Northside Angels (1-0 with 128.9 points scored) #3: Smell My Finger (0-1 with 95.1 points scored) #4: Twin City Tree Cats (0-1 with 94.6 points scored) As you can see, mistakenly leaving Justin Tucker on the bench is the only thing keeping TC2 in the last place spot, as of now. Without knowing who NSA will pick to play this week, we can't really speculate further.
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So the regular season is officially in the books, and we now know who is headed to the playoffs to play for eternal glory, and who is headed to the consolation bracket to play for a jersey.
An action-packed Week 13 had playoff implications in every single game, a great testament to the overall competitiveness of the Red Zone this year. It's hard to believe that the worst regular season record was 4-9, and that the 302 Cadets were in sole possession of it! This year has had a lot of parity, and every team is looking threatening in some way. To breakdown last week's games, lets examine who played who, and what was at stake again. Winners are bolded. The 90* Putters and Troll Hunters: 90* was playing to preserve its #1 seed, while TH was playing for their playoff lives, trying to secure the #6 seed. River Gypsies and Twin City Tree Cats: RG was trying to take the #1 seed (or at least a bye) away from 90*, while TC2 was playing to avoid a last-place finish. The Mullynation and Indian Outlaws: MN just needed to win to secure a playoff berth, while IO actually was just playing for pride, since the playoffs were already secured, but the #3 seed was unreachable. IO was the only team with nothing at stake. Big City Hillbillies and 302 Cadets: BCH was the #2 seed going into this week, but could take the #1 with a win and 90* loss, while 302 was playing to avoid a last-place finish. Northside Angels and Smell My Finger: NSA needed to win to have a chance at making the playoffs, while SMF was playing to avoid a last-place finish. As heartbreaking as it is, 302 Cadets lost a ridiculous 157.7 - 176.1 match to BCH, thus earning sole possession of our last place ranking. Enjoy the 302 Cadets name while you can, people. Next year is gonna look a little different without it. So what's next? I'm going to do a brief look back at the regular season and highlight some underappreciated and overrated players. Let's get started! Underappreciated These don't necessarily have to be blue-chip Top 3 studs at their position, but they're players that I think deserve more respect than they've gotten. 1. Eric Decker I know many of you already know how I feel about Decker, but I really can't help myself. He deserves this #1 spot. Eric Decker, yes that same Eric Decker who went to the U of MN, is now the #11 scoring WR for the entire year, and this is despite missing a game due to injury! He also has the added value of being the #1 most consistent player of the year, with the lowest coefficient of variation (honorable mention to John Brown, who is second). Decker is a stone-cold lock for ten points every week. He is literally leading the league in red zone targets (tied with his teammate Brandon Marshall). At a $1 draft cost, and accompanied by disdain or indifference from the general population, I think he fits the bill as the most underappreciated player of the year. 2. Ryan Fitzpatrick Yup, I'm going with Jets for the #1 and #2 slot. I think the Jets offense overall is undervalued, and Fitzpatrick in particular does not get enough love for what he's done. Is anyone else surprised by the fact that Fitzmagic is currently the #11 scoring QB for the year? How about when you add in the fact that he missed Week 8 (a cushy game against Oakland) due to injury? Since his bye in Week 4, and excluding his missed game, Fitzpatrick has averaged 21 points per game! How good is that? That's third in the league. Pretty damn good if you ask me, and he will never be brought up when talking about great fantasy QBs. That's too bad really. He's earned it. 3. Delanie Walker In our third spot, we have a TE. TEs in general are underappreciated, but Walker even stands out amongst that crowd. Walker has vaulted himself into the Top 5 this year in scoring, with a fantastic 9.8 points per game. That trails Greg Olsen, yes that Greg Olsen, by less than one point per game. Does anyone really talk about Walker as a fantasy weapon? I don't think so! This has been the year of the TE so far, with Eifert emerging as a blue-chip talent, Barnidge going on a ridiculous tear during the middle of the season, and even Jordan Reed and Benjamin Watson getting some love. Where is the love for Walker? He has ONE game under 5 points this year. One! And that was back in Week Five! Gronk can't say that. Olsen can't say that. Walker is one of the safest, highest-floor TEs there is, but he isn't getting the love he deserves. Sure, there are some TEs I'd take over Walker, but there aren't that many. Overrated 1. Lamar Miller Lamar Miller is a bizarre player, both in fantasy and in real life. A lot of that is exacerbated by the way the Dolphins utilize him, which is enough to make any Miller fan rip their hair out. He is perhaps the most unreliable big-name player there is, which is saying something! Lamar Miller has had FOUR games this year where he has scored double-digit points. FOUR. For a starting NFL RB with a fair amount of talent! And yet, there he sits at the #6 RB scoring spot, with a nice cushy average of 11.9 points per game. Yeah right. He has met or exceeded that "average" a total of four times this season out of twelve freaking games. His two highest scores on the year? 26.1 and 35.6 points, both fantastic games where he looked like a Top 5 RB. His two worst games? 3.6 and 1.3 points where he looked like the Dolphins might cut him at any moment. His end-of-the-year total will put him in solid RB1 consideration, but with a historic 67% chance of scoring under 10 points in any given week, I think he's a mid-tier RB2 at the very best. 2. Doug Baldwin Sure, I know Doug Baldwin doesn't get a lot of love, but I'm asserting that the limited love that he does get is still undeserved. Here's why. Doug Baldwin has been a below-average WR for his entire career, and for the vast majority of this season as well! In fact, through his first eight games this year, he averaged a lowly 5.8 points per game. That's on the second page of WR ppg averages on ESPN. That's in the same level as the acclaimed Dwayne Harris of the NYG. And this is not a small sample size either! That is half the freaking season. Then what happened? Russell Wilson caught fire, and has been virtually unstoppable ever since. Baldwin has certainly benefitted/capitalized (however you want to see it), and has put up some enormous numbers since then, totalling 79.3 points in just four games. This has pushed him to the #13 spot in terms of WR scoring, just one single point behind Eric Decker. What absolute nonsense. Baldwin will probably benefit again this week from playing against a bottom 3 secondary (the Ravens), and it will push him into the Top 10. I don't care; I still wouldn't trust him enough to start him in a neutral matchup. 3. Drew Brees Brees has Lamar-Miller-Syndrome. He has a nice season total, well decent at least (#10), with 206.4 points. Let's jump in though, shall we? Brees had an absurd two-week stretch against the Giants and Titans in Weeks 8 and 9, and he scored a ridiculous 75.7 points in those two games. That's 37% of his yearly total! To give some perspective, if you add up Brees' four worst games of the year, you get 37.4 points. That's less than half of his two-game total! Other than his two ridiculous explosions, Brees has only cracked 20 points twice this year, both times scoring 22 points. Otherwise, he's been hovering around 15 points, or honestly quite a bit worse. For a guy who is often mentioned in the sentence right after Brady and Rodgers, that's pretty terrible. That's all I've got! Thanks for reading, and I hope we have some compelling playoff and consolation football this weekend! Best of luck to you all, except you Hayden. You're toast. Hey everybody! I know it's been a couple weeks since we last had a blog post, but I guess life sometimes just gets hectic. Sorry about that!
Anyway, here's your recap of the last week! Best Move of the Week: The Mullynation (and other teams) has had a whole lot on the line in the last couple weeks. This past week, playing against Troll Hunters, was particularly huge. In a last minute change, she benched Frank Gore (3.7) and chose instead to play Spencer Ware (17.5), and she proceeded to win her matchup by 7.5 points. That 11th hour swap brought her a win and gave her an excellent chance to make the playoffs. Worst Move of the Week: This one is pretty easy, and it comes from the same exact matchup. Troll Hunters opted to play the Bills DST (@KC) over the Bengals DST (vs. STL), with poor results. The Bills earned -3 while the Bengals earned 19. In such a close loss, that stings. Had the Troll Hunters played the Bengals DST instead and won this week, they would have locked up a playoff berth. Now, they still need things to go well in Week 13 to get in. Power Rankings: I'm actually not going to write up the rankings for this week, since frankly teams are all over the map. Injuries are rampant (including top-tier teams), and really any team that gets into the playoffs has a chance to win the championship. I started to do it, kept moving teams around for one reason or another, and then just gave up. I can't justify any of my picks really; teams are too close together. Big Changes: I'm doing this in lieu of the rankings. I'm looking at each team and picking one big thing that is currently affecting them. 302 Cadets: What is going to happen to Big Ben this week? A large section of 302's team is built around the Steelers. They've got Deangelo Williams, Antonio Brown, and the Steelers DST. Big Ben is currently dealing with a concussion and may not play against the Colts this week. Obviously this hurts Brown, but will it hurt Williams and the DST too, since the Steelers offense will be overall less effective, and stay on the field less? Northside Angels: How will losing Jimmy Graham and Chris Johnson affect this squad? NSA was smart and handcuffed his investment in Johnson, so he's rolling with David Johnson now. DJ has looked explosive with limited touches, but will he be effective in a non-change-of-pace role? Is losing Jimmy Graham actually a good thing for NSA? Can he find a suitable replacement for this week? River Gypsies: How will the loss of Gronkowski play out over the next couple weeks? Adam Schefter reports that Gronk has an injury that will keep him out "multiple" weeks. RG could really use a win this week to push for the #1 seed, or at least a bye. If RG can't secure a bye, how much is the lack of Gronk in Week 14 going to impact RG? Big City Hillbillies: Is Matt Forte back, or is he just "back?" Forte went down, and BCH took a big hit. They weathered that and currently sit as the #2 seed, and now Forte is healthy enough to play again. Sounds great right? Maybe. Langford has been exceptional in Forte's absence, and with Forte probably leaving Chicago after the season, the rumblings are that Langford has played his way into a timeshare. How does this impact Forte's value over the rest of the season? The Mullynation: How reliable is Frank Gore? Gore has had a season of ups and downs. The loss of Andrew Luck hurts the Colts overall, but it does put more emphasis on the running game. Despite that, Gore hasn't done much at all. But, now Ahmad Bradshaw (who was getting goal line carries) is on IR? Can Gore actually seize this chance now, or will he meddle like he's been doing lately? Smell My Finger: Are there two RBs on this roster? SMF has FOUR questionable RBs right now: Jeremy Hill, Charcandrick West, Carlos Hyde, and Andre Ellington. Is there some combination of those four injured guys that results in even startable results? SMF can't relax on its laurels either. Can SMF find two RBs that can keep it out of the last place position? Indian Outlaws: Can Eddie Lacy actually be trusted now? I'm not so sure that Lacy is back, though I am hopeful. He's strung two good weeks together, which is the first such time this season. Still, the entire Packers offense (including Rodgers, Cobb, Adams, etc) is really struggling, and that limits Lacy's upside in general. Is IO going to have to continually debate each week between Cooks and Lacy for flex, inevitably leading to the wrong choice? The 90* Putters: How does the RB2 slot get filled? This week, 90* had a nice bandaid of Tevin Coleman filling in (temporarily) for Devonta Freeman, but Freeman is coming back this week. 90* has Rawls at RB1, then...what? Forsett is a fading memory. 90* needs to find something for that RB2 slot, or their hopes for a 90* championship are slim. Can 90* find a replacement? Troll Hunters: Is Gurley the savior that he was seen to be? Once Gurley burst onto the scene, everyone and their mother was trying to trade for him. He was Adrian Peterson 2.0, and definitely the hottest commodity on the market. In the last SIX weeks though, his YPC has steadily dropped each and every week, and his fantasy points have followed exactly. I believe in Gurley's talent, no doubt. Does St. Louis' truly awful offense drop Gurley from the RB1 he should be, more to an RB2 level? It seems impossible after his quick start, but you can't argue with reality. Where does Gurley go from here? Twin City Tree Cats: ??? Yeah okay I've got nothing. I'm not kidding. I actually really like TC2 right now. This is a surprisingly solid team; much improved from several weeks ago. It's too bad it's too late for the playoffs, but I think the consolation bracket is definitely winnable with the current TC2 team. Care for a Carson Palmer jersey, anyone? Ramifications of Week 13: Okay so let's look at the reality here. We have Week 13 upon us, and NINE out of ten teams have something significant to play for! That's awesome. Everybody, keep it up one more week! No rest for the weary here. Finish strong. The 90* Putters: Best case scenario: Win this week, and secure the #1 seed. With that, you get the privilege of picking your playoff opponents, an enormous advantage. Worst case scenario: Lose this week, coupled with BCH and RG victories, resulting in dropping to the #3 seed and missing out on a bye. 90* has a ton at stake this week, the difference between #1 and #3 could be a championship. Big City Hillbillies: Best case scenario: Win this week, coupled with 90* loss, resulting in earning the #1 seed outright. Worst case scenario: Lose this week, coupled with a RG victory, resulting in falling to the #3 seed, losing a bye. River Gypsies: Best case scenario: Win this week, coupled with 90* and BCH losses, resulting in earning the #1 seed by tiebreaker. Worst case scenario: Lose this week, resulting in earning the #3 seed. Indian Outlaws: This is actually the one team that has nothing to gain or lose this week. IO is in the playoffs, but cannot reach the #3 seed, which has the benefit of choosing first round opponent. Still, obviously as the commissioner of this league, I am stupidly invested and will always play my best lineup. Troll Hunters: Best case scenario: Win this week, resulting in making the playoffs. Worst case scenario: Lose this week, coupled with an NSA victory, resulting in making the playoffs based on a points-for tiebreaker. The Mullynation: Best case scenario: Win this week, or have NSA lose, or have TH lose, resulting in making the playoffs. Worst case scenario: Lose this week, coupled with NSA and TH victories, resulting in missing the playoffs. Northside Angels: Best case scenario: Win this week, coupled with a TH loss, resulting in making the playoffs. Worst case scenario: Lose this week, resulting in missing the playoffs. 302 Cadets, Twin City Tree Cats, and Smell My Finger: Best case scenario: Win this week, coupled with at least one of the other aforementioned teams losing, resulting in a non-last-place finish. Worst case scenario: Lose this week, coupled with the other two aforementioned teams winning, resulting in a last place finish. That's all I've got! Best of luck everyone! |
By: Hayden HansonMr. Hayden Hanson (Editor in Chief) is an Accountant-extraordinaire, as well as an aspiring writer. He has written several moderately-successful self-help books, the most famous of which is "What Do You Mean You Can Smell My BO?" Gustav Travers of the New York Times praised the book as "A vulnerable, courageous look into the mind of a man who has literally no sense that other people exist. And also no sense of smell. Nope, he definitely doesn't have that either. Just musk, like a hog that's gotten into the cabbage." Archives
September 2019
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