I'm sure you all are beginning to get that sinking feeling in your stomach, slowly coming to the realization that, yes, IO will four-peat. It's destiny, everyone. You can't stand in the way of destiny.
I know the point of this post is not really relating to IO at all, but I'm just going to take about thirty seconds of your time and pat myself on the back, because Lord knows I've earned it. The Indian Outlaws have now won TEN straight playoff games. That's right. Ten straight. IO has never had a first-round bye, yet has won the last three championships, and is two mere games away from a fourth. The last playoff loss IO had was in 2011. Let's give it up, people. Come on. That's just impressive. Anyway, this week's post is a reboot of last year's "What If" posting. I will break down several reasonable alternate scenarios for how this season went down, and try to figure out where we'd be. Of course, with waivers and such, there's no actual way to know what would happen, but it's fun to think about anyway. Scenario #1: What if the Indian Outlaws hadn't picked the worst DST choice possible in Week 5? Here's what actually happened. TH played against IO in Week 5, and though both teams shat the bed (93.6 and 87.8), IO shat the bed even worse. TH earned an incredibly important win with a total of just 93.6 points. This actually ended up being very influential, as TH ended up as the Red Zone's #6 seed. Now the thing is, IO chose to play the Ravens DST that week, as they were facing an awful Cleveland team. That turned out to be a disastrous decision, with the Ravens DST earning a -6 score! IO lost by 5.8, so playing no DST at all would have given IO the victory. Only three DSTs would have caused IO to lose in Week 5, and IO used one of them. The other two (NO and SF) would never get picked by anyone, regardless of matchup. Had IO played any other DST, TH would have likely entered Week 13 with a 5-7 record, the same as NSA. In that case, both would have needed a victory to advance to the playoffs. We know how that ended, with both actually losing to their opponents, thus succumbing to 5-8 records. The part where it gets interesting is that TH played NSA in Week 1 and won, so TH would have held the head-to-head tiebreaker over NSA. So that means that TH still would have made the playoffs, right? Wrong! TC2 and SMF also won in Week 13, bringing both of their records to 5-8, meaning we would have had a four-way tie at 5-8 for the last playoff spot. Since there would be more than just two teams involved, the tiebreaker then would have gone to total points scored, which NSA would have won (NSA: 1534, SMF: 1467, TH: 1382, TC2: 1320). NSA would have been the #6 seed. Given the fact that NSA scored just 83 points in Week 13 and overall put up a rather uninspired effort in the last regular season match, it's not completely unreasonable to think that RG may have chosen NSA as his opponent for Week 14, opting to pit IO and MN against each other instead. Had RG chosen NSA, he would have come to regret that decision, losing this week 122.3 - 128.9 in a close match with NSA. Scenario #2: What if the 302 Cadets had simply had a decent week in Week 4? We are going further and further back, and beginning to stretch the bonds of credibility, but I don't care. It's a fun thought experiment regardless. So, in Week 4 we had IO face against 302 and emerge with a weak victory of 90.2 - 84.1. Now, Week 4 was overall a pretty terrible week for fantasy football (if you don't believe me, just look at the scores), but still, coming away with a win after only scoring 90 points is usually pretty unlikely. What if IO, like the vast majority of teams before it, earned a loss by only scoring 90.2 points? Well, had 302 put up even just a below-average week of about 100 (year-long average for 302 was 105 points per game), they would have earned another win, pushing them to a 5-8 record at the end of the year instead of 4-9. That would have placed 302 squarely into a five-way tie at 5-8, along with IO, NSA, TC2, and SMF. Based on total points scored, TC2 would have lost that tie, and would no longer have the privilege of naming themselves next year. 302 would be spared as our ninth seed, and we would still see the 302 Cadets name as usual next year. In regards to IO, they would have ended the year (as mentioned above) at 5-8. Normally you wouldn't even be able to dream of making the playoffs with a 5-8 record, but amazingly, that IO loss in Week 4 would ensure that a playoff team would have a 5-8 record. And that playoff team would be....... NSA! NSA's points-scored would move it to the front of the line, giving it the boost it needed to make the playoffs. In this ridiculous (yet alarmingly possible) scenario, the #6 seed and the #10 seed would somehow have the exact same W-L record. The only difference between making the playoffs and losing your naming rights would be your points scored. That's a fight that NSA would win, and TC2 would lose. Scenario #3: What if the Week 7 showdown between 90* and RG never had that fateful stat correction? In Week 7, 90* was riding his 6 game winning streak to start the season while RG was 3-3 and fighting for a playoff slot. Their matchup came down to the wire, with 90* seemingly earning a 137.8 - 137.0 victory. It was not to last. Several days later, a stat correction removed a pass deflection from 90*'s defensive lineman, Aaron Donald, so 90* lost two points in the process. This gave RG the improbable victory by a 137 - 135.8 margin. What if there had been no review of the footage, and Aaron Donald had still been credited with that pass deflection? 90* would have ended the year with a lofty 11-2 record, the best in the history of the Red Zone. Clearly, he still would have been the #1 seed. RG however would end the year at 7-6 instead of 8-5, and find himself right in the thick of things. There would be two 7-6 teams this year, RG and The Mullynation. Considering MN beat RG in their sole head-to-head matchup, she would have earned the tiebreaker over him, becoming the #3 seed. RG would have been the #4, with IO at #5 (6-7 record) and TH at #6 (6-7 record). The interesting part is, I know for a fact that MN would have picked TH for her Week 14 opponent. That is a fact. She would have lost that matchup 102.6 - 108.5, so TH would currently be in the semifinals. The kicker is, IO and RG would have had their faceoff in Week 14, just like IO wanted. Had that happened, the Monday Night Football game would have been incredibly intense. Before the game, both teams were projected to end at 116 points, so it was a tight matchup. Lamar Miller had an explosive first half, scoring 19 points. OBJ did basically nothing, and had just a couple points at the half. I'm sure RG would have been basking in his inevitable victory. The second half turned things around though, with Miller only getting five carries for basically no points. OBJ ended up with a monster game, all from the second half. IO would have won 140.4 - 122.3, but no one would have guessed that outcome at halftime. IO, TH, 90*, and BCH would be in the semifinals. Consolation Bracket Analysis: We can't forget about our beloved brethren who missed the playoffs this year, so let's look into what's going on in our consolation bracket. We have four teams vying for a free jersey: NSA, SMF, 302, and TC2. NSA was our #7 seed (based on points-scored tiebreaker), so he has earned the privilege to choose his opponent in each week of this three-week round robin tournament. In Week 14 (Week #1 of the playoffs), NSA selected TC2 as his opponent, leaving SMF and 302 to face off in the other game. NSA had a fantastic game from his Panthers DST (29), and when coupling that with solid games from Aaron Rodgers (19.4), TY Hilton (13.2), Adrian Peterson (12.6), David Johnson (12.3), and Stephen Gostkowski (11), that was more than enough to push him past TC2's 94.6 point total. TC2 really didn't have the greatest week, with the sole bright spots being Carson Palmer (20.7), Khalil Mack (18.8), and Julius Thomas (11.4). Interestingly, TC2 made the smart move to acquire Justin Tucker off waivers, but then forgot to put him in his kicker slot. This is the first example this season of an illegal lineup, so everyone try to stay invested! Tucker's six points wouldn't have changed the outcome of this game, but considering points-scored is a tiebreaker in the consolation bracket, maybe TC2 is trying to foot the bill for the jersey? In the other game, 302 posted an excellent total of 138.9 points just one week after scoring 157.7 and losing. Perhaps his team was angry about being named the last-place team in the Red Zone? The 138.9 was enough to get past SMF's 95.1, earning 302 just his fifth victory of the season. Blake Bortles (23.7), Deangelo Williams (21.1), Allen Hurns (16.5), Gary Barnidge (15.1) and even the Steelers DST against the Bengals (15) all had great days. TJ Yeldon got injured, which is going to hurt 302 going forward, but that's just his flex position. Antonio Brown had an uncharacteristically bad day (8.7), but can you really ever count out Antonio Brown? He'll be back. SMF got yet another stellar game from Cam Newton (23), as well as solid showings from the mercurial Sammy Watkins (14.2), Broncos DST (12), and Blair Walsh (11), but that wasn't enough to boost the multiple poor outings. Jeremy Hill, Charcandrick West, Mike Evans, and Michael Crabtree all COMBINED for 13.6 points. That's not going to go well. So, our leaderboard currently is as follows: #1: 302 Cadets (1-0 with 138.9 points scored) #2: Northside Angels (1-0 with 128.9 points scored) #3: Smell My Finger (0-1 with 95.1 points scored) #4: Twin City Tree Cats (0-1 with 94.6 points scored) As you can see, mistakenly leaving Justin Tucker on the bench is the only thing keeping TC2 in the last place spot, as of now. Without knowing who NSA will pick to play this week, we can't really speculate further.
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By: Hayden HansonMr. Hayden Hanson (Editor in Chief) is an Accountant-extraordinaire, as well as an aspiring writer. He has written several moderately-successful self-help books, the most famous of which is "What Do You Mean You Can Smell My BO?" Gustav Travers of the New York Times praised the book as "A vulnerable, courageous look into the mind of a man who has literally no sense that other people exist. And also no sense of smell. Nope, he definitely doesn't have that either. Just musk, like a hog that's gotten into the cabbage." Archives
September 2019
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