This week we have our second special playoff write-up, this time mostly covering the coming championship match between TDfW and the mullynation. I'll also look into the possible outcomes of our consolation bracket based on the last two weeks' results.
BEST MOVE OF THE WEEK GMMBP had a lot on the line this week. It came into Week Fourteen as an underdog, facing the #1 seed. GMMBP decided to play three WRs this week. This is not unusual, considering the quality of GMMBP's RBs (excluding Forsett). What is unusual, is that GMMBP decided to bench Desean Jackson, Michael Crabtree, Reggie Wayne, and Cordarrelle Patterson, instead relying on a waiver-wire add. He went with Marques Colston. Now Colston hasn't been terrible this year, but one thing he hasn't been is consistent. He's had more bad weeks than good, by far. Still, Colton ended up grabbing a touchdown on his way to 12.5 points this week. Jackson, Crabtree, Wayne, and Patterson COMBINED to score 6.6 points. That's right. Colton narrowly missed scoring twice as much as all of them combined. Nice call, Chris, even if it wasn't quite enough. WORST MOVE OF THE WEEK There weren't any really obvious bad moves this week, so kudos everyone. I'm actually going to take this award myself this week. I chose to play Jamaal Charles (5.3) and Lesean McCoy (6.5) over Eddie Lacy (16.8). I was scared off by the poor matchup with Buffalo and thought that Charles and McCoy had better chances to score. Charles is more forgiveable, and I don't really think anyone else would have predicted his poor game, nor benched him for Lacy. Picking McCoy over Lacy is more egregious. Lacy has simply been better than McCoy this season, as well as offering more consistency. I should have trusted Lacy and left McCoy on the bench, but I didn't do it. When McCoy had three different TDs vultured from him, it made it obvious that Lacy is the better play. McCoy just can't be relied on with the way Chip Kelly is using him. Championship Preview It's been a long season, and it's all ending this week. We've got an all-Wheeler matchup vying for our trophy this week, which is appropriate because I think this is a meeting of our top two teams. I'm guessing Gentry will disagree, but I'm confident most teams can see my point. This match is going to feature plenty of surefire studs. QB: Ben Roethlisberger vs. KC (7th against QBs) Andrew Luck @ Dal (23rd against QBs) I think this is perhaps the most obvious advantage of any of the positions we'll look over. Not only is Luck the better overall player, but he has a far superior matchup. This is an easy advantage for the mullynation, and I'm sure she's hoping it turns out to be a 15+ point difference between Ben and Luck. Advantage: the mullynation RBs: Eddie Lacy @ TB (25th against RBs) + Jamaal Charles @ Pit (12th against RBs) Demarco Murray vs. Ind (26th against RBs) + Mark Ingram vs Atl (32nd against RBs) This one is a little bit closer. Of course I'm speculating about who will end up in the starting lineups, but I think these are reasonable guesses. Lacy is going to have a big day. I see 20+ points in a game where the Packers pull ahead and try to control the clock. Lacy is playing incredibly well, and TB's defense isn't very good anyway. Charles may have a tougher time, though I think he's clearly more talented overall than Lacy. KC could get behind early and have to play catch-up, though that usually isn't bad news for Charles. He's a threat for 20+ in each and every game he plays simply because of how one-dimensional the KC offense is. I think, despite his Monday morning left-hand surgery, Murray will still get 15-20 touches against the Colts. I don't imagine the Cowboys sitting him, and even if they did, the mullynation has both of his backups. I see Murray having a nice 15+ point day against Indy, and Ingram doing the same against Atlanta. If Ingram were a higher quality player I'd guess for more, but I think 15 is doable given Atlanta's awful defense. Advantage: Tie WRs: Jordy Nelson @ TB (29th against WRs) + Odell Beckham Jr. @StL (20th against WRs) + Dez Bryant vs. Ind (5th against WRs) Josh Gordon @ Car (24th against WRs) + Calvin Johnson @ Chi (23rd against WRs) + TY Hilton @ Dal (9th against WRs) Despite the good matchup, I see Jordy having a floor of 12 and a ceiling of about 17 points, since I think the Packers will stop passing the ball once they're way ahead of TB. I don't see Dez or OBJ having issues with either of their matchups, as OBJ is the only option on that offense and Dez will likely be involved in a shootout. These are both great plays. Gordon has been anemic since returning, and Manziel isn't helping. Despite a good matchup, I think Gordon has a similar upper limit as Jordy, though for a very different reason: QB play. A low-scoring week is very possible. Calvin will obliterate the Bears awful defense, and I would honestly be surprised if he doesn't score at least 20. TY will also have a nice day, as he'll be facing the awful Brandon Carr in a high-scoring game. 10 is his floor. Advantage: TDfW TE: Rob Gronkowski @ NYJ (28th against TEs) Jimmy Graham vs. Atl (5th against TEs) This is the other obvious advantage, along with QB. In this case though, TDfW has the better play. Gronk is miles ahead of any other TE this year, and he has a cupcake matchup. Graham has had some uncharacteristic struggles, and faces a stingy defense. I'm hoping Gronk can earn me back 10 points here. Advantage: TDfW Miscellaneous: JJ Watt + Seahawks D/ST @ Ari + Matt Prater [Insert DP here] + Rams D/ST vs. NYG + Dan Bailey Watt trumps any defensive player the mullynation will pick up now that Joe Haden is injured. The Seahawks benefit from the Cardinals losing their starting QB and RB, though the Rams also have a nice matchup against a NYG team that has been very prone to turnovers. Bailey offers a higher floor and more upside than Prater, being on a team that is simply higher scoring and more efficient. Advantage: the mullynation Overall, I think that Andrew Luck is going to prove to be the difference. I see Gronkowski and OBJ keeping TDfW close, but Luck's production is not going to be easily overcome. I predict TDfW will lose by less than ten points to the mullynation, and the Quest for Three will come up just short. Consolation Bracket Analysis: I'll bet you guys thought I forgot about you! Well I certainly didn't, and I've been keeping tabs on your tournament so I can lay out the possible endings to this entertaining round-robin. The results thus far are as follows: Merman Pop, Mer-Man: 2-0 with 231.4 points Forgot About Tre: 1-1 with 215.5 points 38% Chance of Victory: 1-1 with 192.2 points I'm Just Gonna Shake It Off: 0-2 with 131.2 points MPM is currently our front-runner for the jersey. MPM is 2-0 in its first two matches and has scored 231.4 points. Don't forget that our tie-breaker is total points scored, not head-to-head record. This means that MPM can secure the jersey simply by winning this week, but also by scoring a high total in a loss. MPM plays T-Swift this week, so FAT and 38V better hope that T-Swift performs better than it has in the past two weeks. They both need MPM to lose, coupled with a win of their own. On top of that, FAT would need to outscore MPM's total by 16.0 points, while 38V would need to outscore MPM's total by 39.3 points. Both are certainly possible, but it all starts with T-Swift beating MPM. If that doesn't happen, then MPM will be getting a jersey of his choice, guaranteed. T-Swift unfortunately is almost certainly going to be the financier of the aforementioned jersey, no matter who earns it. The only remotely possible scenario in which T-Swift avoids last place would be if they beat MPM while also outscoring a losing 38V by 61.1 points. Oof. That's a tall order. I think it's most likely that MPM (despite placing last in our regular season rankings) will win the jersey, and T-Swift will be footing the bill. This is obviously still up in the air, and we'll have to see what happens.
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By: Hayden HansonMr. Hayden Hanson (Editor in Chief) is an Accountant-extraordinaire, as well as an aspiring writer. He has written several moderately-successful self-help books, the most famous of which is "What Do You Mean You Can Smell My BO?" Gustav Travers of the New York Times praised the book as "A vulnerable, courageous look into the mind of a man who has literally no sense that other people exist. And also no sense of smell. Nope, he definitely doesn't have that either. Just musk, like a hog that's gotten into the cabbage." Archives
September 2019
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